A popular YouTube channel known for election analysis has drawn widespread attention with a detailed simulation in which ChatGPT projects a decisive Republican victory in the 2028 presidential race. In a video from the Election Time channel, the host prompts the AI model to forecast election-night results for a matchup between Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom, then walks viewers through a complete Electoral College map filled in by poll-closing order.
The host opens by noting that the exercise produced a “jaw-dropping” outcome. “I told ChatGPT to show me what will happen on election night in 2028,” he says, explaining that the video would reveal the AI’s state-by-state calls in real time as polls close. Before generating the map, ChatGPT first selected the nominees. On the Democratic side it chose Newsom, even though early polling had placed him roughly 15 points behind former Vice President Kamala Harris. The host points out that prediction-market odds on Kalshi currently list Newsom as the front-runner for the Democratic nomination with a 19 percent chance, ahead of a rising Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Jon Ossoff. On the Republican side the choice was straightforward: Vance leads both polls and the Kalshi market, where he holds a 41 percent chance of becoming the GOP nominee. With the matchup set, the simulation proceeds hour by hour.
At 7 p.m. Eastern Time, polls close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia. Indiana and Kentucky are immediately called solidly for Vance. South Carolina is projected as likely Republican by a comfortable 14-point margin. Georgia leans to the vice president by 4 points—described in the video as roughly double former President Trump’s 2024 margin in the state—while Virginia remains lean Democratic for Newsom by just 3 points. After this first wave, Vance leads 44 electoral votes to Newsom’s 16.
Thirty minutes later, West Virginia is called solid red for Vance by more than 40 points. Ohio is rated likely Republican by 14 points, only one percentage point shy of a safe classification. North Carolina leans Republican by 4.8 percent. Vance’s total climbs to 81 electoral votes.
The massive 8 p.m. wave, covering 171 electoral votes across 16 states plus the District of Columbia, produces the night’s first major surprise. New Hampshire flips to tilt Republican for Vance by a razor-thin 0.9 percent—the first GOP win there since George W. Bush in 2000. Maine’s Second Congressional District also leans to Vance, although Newsom still carries the state overall by 3 to 4 points and is rated lean Democratic. Florida locks in as likely Republican by 12 points, and Pennsylvania leans Republican. Safe Republican states including Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama fall easily for Vance. On the Democratic side, Newsom holds Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, D.C., Connecticut (likely by 14 percent), Delaware (likely by 12 percent), Illinois (likely), and New Jersey (lean by 3.4 percent—the closest margin in the state since 1992). By the end of the hour Vance stands at 178 electoral votes, fewer than 100 short of the 270 needed to win.
The 9 p.m. closings deliver a second historic flip. Minnesota goes lean Republican for Vance by 1.2 percent—the first time a Republican has carried the state since Richard Nixon in 1972, a span of 54 years. Wisconsin and Michigan both lean Republican by margins of 2 to 4 points each. Arizona leans Republican by 4 percent, while Nevada later locks in as lean Republican by 3 to 4 points. Texas is called likely Republican, and Iowa is likely Republican by 12 points. Newsom retains New York (likely by 12.4 percent), Colorado (likely by 8 points), and New Mexico (lean by 4.9 percent).
Later hours confirm the remaining map. California, Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii go to Newsom, with California projected at roughly a 30-point margin. Alaska finishes likely Republican for Vance by 13 percent.
“And so this is ChatGPT’s 2028 election prediction,” the host concludes. “It has Vice President JD Vance defeating California Governor Gavin Newsom, flipping Minnesota and New Hampshire, winning 326 electoral votes. Newsom taking just 212. This would make Newsom’s performance the worst for any Democrat since Michael Dukakis in 1988.”
The video has circulated widely among election watchers, sparking fresh online debate about both the reliability of AI-generated forecasts and the emerging contours of the 2028 race. While the simulation is entirely hypothetical and rests on the model’s internal projections rather than traditional polling aggregates, its granular, hour-by-hour presentation has given viewers a concrete—if speculative—picture of how an election night dominated by Vance could unfold.
